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Montana HBusiness Development Director
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Last year was a memorable one for a number of reasons, and throughout an astonishing 12 months – which included the Brexit vote and election of Donald Trump – the UK property market remained stable and consistent.
Our attentions now turn to the 12 months ahead of us and what could lie in store when it comes to property price growth and transaction levels.
Here’s a round-up of property predictions from some of the industry’s biggest hitters…
The Centre for Economics and Business Research: The economic consultancy predicts that prices will continue to grow across the UK, although at a slower rate than the 6.9% recorded in 2016. In London, the organisation is forecasting an annual average price drop of more than 5%.
Estimated growth: UK – 2.6%, London – -5.6%
Bumps in the road? CEBR says the main issue for the coming 12 months is the uncertainty over the UK’s impending exit from the EU and that investors and buyers are concerned about the possible consequences of a ‘hard Brexit’.
Knight Frank: The global property firm says that growth will be 'notably slower' this year and that price drops may start to occur in locations other than Prime Central London. Knight Frank is predicting the East and South East regions to have stronger years in terms of growth than Greater London.
Estimated growth: UK – 5%, London – -1%
Bumps in the road? The agency says that the UK's exit from the EU will impact on consumer confidence, particularly in the lead up to and just after the now infamous Article 50 is triggered.
National Association of Estate Agents: Mark Hayward, the managing director of the NAEA, has suggested that prices will remain relatively stable in 2017. The organisation says there certainly won't be a 'property Armageddon' but has urged the Government to work harder to meet its housebuilding objectives.
Estimated growth: 43% of estate agents surveyed say they expect average house prices to stay static during 2017
Bumps in the road? The trade body for agents says that the high-end market in the capital is still struggling due to stamp duty changes while Brexit uncertainty remains an issue.
Nationwide: The mortgage lender and bank says that the property market's prospects will depend on the wider economy and it agrees with the Bank of England's prediction that the economy will slow during 2017 which means more modest house price growth.
Estimated growth: UK – 2%
Bumps in the road? Continued uncertainty and economic conditions are likely to have the biggest negative impact on the housing market, according to Nationwide.
Halifax: The housing team at Halifax believe that prices will grow during 2017, but at a slower rate than last year. However, the firm says that uncertainty means it is hard to give a specific forecast. It does predict that during 2017 a housing shortage will continue to underpin house price growth.
Estimated growth: UK – 1-4%
Bumps in the road? Halifax warns that the possibility of a deteriorating labour market could have a negative impact on housing demand, while a softening economy and weakening sterling could also have an effect.
The key message from the majority of these forecasts is that house prices in the UK will continue to grow during 2017, but that the prospect of Britain leaving the EU is likely to have a significant impact on housing demand and subsequently average house prices.
Echoing the words of the NAEA, there’s no expectation of a property Armageddon this year and agents can be hopeful of a steady year without too many surprises. However, if last year was anything to go by these predictions will all have been proved wrong by the summer!
At Gnomen, we help property managers, estate and letting agents to run every aspect of their business. We do this by offering cutting-edge, all-in-one cloud-based property software, providing agents with the flexibility required in the modern world.
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